“Where on Earth is Online Learning working ?”

I have spent the last several months obsessed with this question: from deep dives in Edtech history to the craziest AI experiments. Thankfully I have found some places where it is working & actually working well.

Here’s what I have found…

I started my search in K-12 education as I spent my last decade there. Sadly online learning is not working in K-12. There are rare teachers & programs that have made it work but they are the exception. For now, there are just too many challenges.

So I broadened my search…

It led me to a new domain in take-off phase: ‘Adults learning post college’. Other names: continuous education, life long learning, professional learning.

There are obvious reasons why online learning is working better for adults but here are 2 sectoral forces driving this:

→ It’s needed: People now change careers faster & more often than ever before. So everyone needs to learn post college.

→ It’s possible: Earlier, time & geography constraints meant, ‘structured’ post college learning was just not feasible. Internet has smashed those constraints.

End result: More adults are accessing structured learning environments post college that are not a traditional university. Most of this learning is done online. It’s working and growing rapidly.

Here are the 3 models I find most fascinating:

1️⃣ ONLINE CERTIFICATION:

Imagine someone who has been working for a few years & wants to change their job. A full-time degree doesn’t work: time, price, loss of income. They want a course to do with their existing job, but with a reputed degree & access to lucrative jobs.

On the other hand there is a college of decent reputation but not world famous. The enrolments for their full time programs are down. They don’t have the resources to build an online program, acquire the students and run the program. They want a trusted partner to help with this.

Enter: Online Certification programs. They acquire the students, partner with colleges, collect fees & run the online program. Examples: Coursera, UpGrad, Great Learning. They enable what internet has done in every industry: make things cheaper, more convenient, more accessible.

But despite their success there is still a stigma with online degrees. These companies are hoping online campaigns & time will take care of it. Overall these programs are very similar. So the winners will be the ones who crack acquisition, economies of scale & brand building.

Personal Opinion: I am not very excited about this model. It just perpetuates the degree-signalling focus of education. But since that’s how the system works, me turning up my nose will have no impact. These models are working for their stakeholders & so they will keep growing.

2️⃣ BOOTCAMPS:

These are new, exciting & controversial. They actually fit the technical definition of ‘disruption’: bring a new tech based business model which is hard for the incumbents to counter. This explains the attention & hate they get. Example: Lambda school, AltMBA

They also mostly promise a better job but instead of partnerships with existing universities they take matters in their own hands. The programs are fully online, known for intense-live experiences, lots of learning by doing and a big focus on peer support & feedback.

For many they are building an alternative to a higher education system that has gotten too expensive & often doesn’t work. There is a lot of debate about them: tons of success stories and also a growing band of critics. For now I just have 2 questions related to them:

(A) Who decides if their program works or not ? Their students or the existing education system. This is as much a political-ideological question as an Education one ? (B) If their program works, can they maintain quality as they scale up to give the returns their investors want ?

3️⃣ COHORT BASED COURSES:

These are the newest kids on the block & I find them very interesting. Simply put, these are paid courses that adults take, that don’t directly promise you a degree or a job. What they do promise: tangible learning, community and pursuing your interests.

They have 70%-90% completion rates, good student outcomes & high student satisfaction. Also these educators are living what many would consider a dream: impacting many students, having tons of freedom-control and making a great living. No wonder CBCs are growing like crazy.

My 2 questions: (A) How big is this market ? Right now it seems the same people are taking all the courses. Is that so ? If yes then what’s the future like ? (B) How scalable is the model for any 1 educator. The biggest courses are at a 1000 students/batch. Is there a limit ?

These deep dives have given me a glimpse of where online learning might actually work. It might not apply to K-12 for now, but at-least my ‘What Works in Edtech’ notebook, finally has some entries.